Canada needs a new agriculture and food strategy as political, pandemic and economic shocks to the global food system render the way Canada has thrived in the world no longer viable.
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That was the message at a conference in Ottawa Jan. 31, hosted by leading agriculture policy think tanks and attended by agriculture leaders in government, industry and farm organizations.
The new world in which more people are hungry, and skepticism about the value of trade grows, brings risk but also significant opportunity for Canadian agriculture.
Why it matters: Canada derives much of its success in agriculture from trade and disruption to those economically advantageous systems could have financial impacts on farmers who rely on them to work smoothly.
The Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute (CAPI), the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance (CAFTA) and the Canadian Global Affairs Institute hosted the event.
The shocks to the global food system have been many in the past couple of years including:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means exports from two major food producers have been disrupted resulting in supply chain chaos and hunger in many parts of the world.
- The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted food supply chains that had worked efficiently for years and stretched around the world. This means higher food prices and less food available where it is needed.
- Inflation has risen around the world, meaning there is less money in many people’s budgets, straining their ability to buy food.
- The United States has pulled away from being a strong actor in the world, which has resulted in less focus on free trade and democracy and allowed China to become a larger influence.
- Countries have stopped enforcing some trade agreements, and that has resulted in a breakdown of some of the carefully constructed rules-based trading order that had been in place.
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The system of open trade that Canada helped spread through the world no longer works, says the man who negotiated several of Canada’s major trade deals for agriculture.
Steve Verheul, Canada’s former chief trade negotiator, says that the rules-based system was created when there was an abundance of food moving around the world, and that system is challenged to address countries’ new concerns about food security.
“The pendulum has swung away from relying on market forces in the economy to an increasingly interventionist approach,” he said as part of a panel at the conference.
“What’s driving trade policy now is more strategic approaches.”
That includes the United States and its focus on China as a competitor and the American’s refusal to name a representative to the World Trade Organization appeals body, rendering it incapable of solving disputes. Countries are forming blocks of trading nations, with other friendly countries, instead of making the World Trade Organization paramount.
As countries worry more about their food security, they are more likely to take quick decisions on tariffs and barriers in an attempt to solve short-term problems.
Until about 2015, the world was making significant progress in reducing hunger, says Elly Vandenberg, director, Global Office Canada, United Nations World Food Programme.
Due to political instability, natural disasters, droughts and many other factors, the world has tipped towards greater hunger in recent years.
“There are significant parts of the world where there isn’t readily available food and water,” says Richard Fadden, a former security advisor to prime ministers Steven Harper and Justin Trudeau, adding that some of those are nuclear powers.
Opportunity in the changing world
The message about crises driving instability around food in the world might be dire, but there was also an undercurrent of optimism at the conference because of obvious opportunities. When the world needs food, Canada has the farmers, land and systems to supply it.
It took a foreign ambassador to put it most starkly.
Yamanouchi Kanji, Japan’s ambassador to Canada, pointed out during the conference that in the G7, only three countries have a food sufficiency index of 100, meaning they can feed themselves. The U.S. and France are a bit above 100. Canada is at 250, he says. Japan in the 30s, and understands that maintaining food imports is a life or death calculation, he says. As a wealthy country with stable government and good relations around the world, Japan can manage. There are other countries, like Lebanon, which are more at risk as it imports almost all of its food, and relies heavily on the World Food Programme.
About one in six people in the world depend on trade for food today, says Claire Citeau, CAFTA’s executive director. By 2050, it is estimated that number will be one in two.
As populations grow, there’s more demand for food from growing middle classes and climate change alters where food can be best grown.
“There’s a chance for Canada to examine its place in the world,” she says.
However, several commented at the conference that Canada is not ready to take advantage of the opportunities.
Canada’s share of the world agriculture trade has not kept pace with competitors. The Barton report six years ago called for Canada’s agri-food export value to hit $75 billion by 2023. That value has already been reached, mostly due to increases in the value of commodities.
Canada’s share of global agri-food exports, however, has not moved.
Dominic Barton, the author of the report, said at the conference that Canadian agriculture science is unparalleled and that Canadians needed to partner with growing agriculture production areas, such as in Africa, to share expertise and build new businesses.
The reticence of Canadians to think outside of their borders and build and support world-leading agriculture companies to compete there was criticized.
“We have the underpinnings for all of this, but we don’t have a strategy,” says Ted Bilyea, a CAPI distinguished fellow. “Partly that is because we have never really thought deeply about the world as far as supply and demand long term.
“We’re moving into a different era. We grew up in an era of abundance. We grew too much and ran around trying to market it. We’re gradually moving into the less-abundance era largely because of demand.”
There are also barriers within the country that need to be addressed to allow for increased agricultural productivity and exports, including the lack of regulatory speed on issues like recertification of glyphosate and gene editing, and the need to upgrade rail and port facilities, especially in Vancouver.
It’s time for a large Canadian effort, says Chantelle Donahue, vice president and sustainability director – Cargill Agricultural Supply Chain North America.
“We’re at an inflection point. The most memorable times are when we come together to build things. This is an opportunity for Canada to lean in.”
The industry and government aren’t there yet, says Verheul.
“The only way to move something forward is if it is a national priority,” he says.
“We’ve never done that in Canada in a direct way in which we have government and industry work together to promote a sector to meet national objectives. It tends to focus the mind and pushes things forward. The food sector can kind of stand alone in some ways in that discussion.”
Canadian farmers, like a pulse grower in Saskatchewan exporting to India or an Ontario hog farmer whose pork ends up in Japan, have long-established markets. But for Canada to thrive in a world that’s changed, big new efforts are needed.
“There are clearly opportunities for Canada to do more, opportunities for Canada to live up to its potential as a food super power, but we’re not there yet,” says Tyler McCann, managing director of CAPI.
“We need to think more strategically, we need to think more longer term. We need to do a better job of bringing people together to deliver the outcomes and the tools that the sector needs.”
